Castleford just cling on, Catalans win at the death, Leeds win by 2 – we had several close games towards the back end of the standard season, but how did the stats stack up for each game, it’s a different stat done differently this week looking at each game.
Leeds Rhinos vs St Helens
Tries 4 vs 4
Assists 3 vs 3
Tackles 278 vs 379
Marker tackles 39 vs 62
Missed tackles 25 vs 26
Tackle busts 26 vs 25
Attacking kicks 15 vs 12
Carries 215 vs 157
Avg gain 6.78 vs 8.89
Clean break 5 vs 6
Runs from Dummy half 27 vs 21
Errors 8 vs 12
Goals 4 vs 3
Missed goals 1 vs 1
Offload 20 vs 7
Penalties 3 vs 11
Yellow card 0 vs 1
With both tries and assists on equal terms the points came from the goal kicking here with 4 to 3 in favour of the Rhinos but there are a number metrics suggesting this was a tight game one. Saints made over 100 tackles more than the Rhinos showing that the Rhinos were making runs and creating opportunities that required a robust defence. Take the Saints tackle measurement lightly though as Saints have the highest number of tackles in total in Super League so far.
Another interesting measurement for this game is the avg carry gain normally the higher the avg gain the easier a team found it to run at (or through) the opposition so it normally denotes the winner but not in this match. Although Saints could make the metres they found it hard to get over the try line, 8.89 metres per carry is the highest in this round. With regards to making metres and not winning it’s something Warrington have been doing all season which goes against the grain of what should happen.
Offloads is more of a style thing, it’s a big part of the Rhinos game and they made the most offloads in round 20 jointly with Wakefield.
Castleford Tigers vs Hull FC
Tries 3 vs 4
Assists 0 vs 4
Tackles 343 vs 337
Marker tackles 49 vs 68
Missed tackles 24 vs 22
Tackle busts 22 vs 24
Attacking kick 11 vs 17
Carries 152 vs 175
Avg Carry Gain 7.79 vs 6.92
Clean break 3 vs 5
Runs from Dummy Half 30 vs 12
Errors 12 vs 16
Goals 6 vs 3
Missed goals 0 vs 1
Offload 5 vs 7
Penalties 6 vs 7
Another tight game, Castleford we able to win the tie without scoring the most tries and in fact reversed a Hull FC tactic earlier in the season and took most penalty opportunities to kick at goal and in doing so secured 12 points just from the boot (when you add the conversions in).
Metres made is interesting with Castleford making 1 metre more on average per carry, other than that there wasn’t much to choose between the top 2 teams going into the fixture and I suspect the next encounter will be as gripping as this. Perhaps Hull sensed this lack of momentum moving forward and tried using the boot as they had the highest attacking kicks stats for this round.
Wakefield Trinity vs Warrington Wolves
Tries 4 vs 2
Assists 3 vs 1
Tackles 375 vs 384
Marker tackles 58 vs 67
Missed tackles 32 vs 25
Tackle busts 25 vs 32
Attacking kicks 16 vs 12
Carries 193 vs 175
Av Gain 7.48m vs 7.29m
Clean breaks 7 vs 5
Runs from Dummy Half 22 vs 21
Errors 13 vs 13
Goals 5 vs 2
Missed goals 1 vs 0
Offload 20 vs 14
Penalties 12 vs 11
Yellow cards 1 vs 0
A comfortable victory of sorts for Wakefield, this is what I would consider a near text book stats win for Wakefield, they score more tries, assist more, tackle less, carry more and further than they opponents, more clean breaks, more goals, more offloads. But we do have points for Mr Chester to try and fix with his team.
Warrington were busting through that defence more often than Wakefield and with Castleford coming up on Thursday that will be an issue for him. So too will the errors and penalties in total they lost possession 21 times, their opponents didn’t do much better but it’s something they can’t offord to do against a side that capitalises so quickly on mistakes.
Catalans Dragons vs Leigh Centurions
Tries 7 vs 6
Assists 7 vs 5
Tackles 282 vs 335
Marker tackles 43 vs 47
Missed tackles 12 vs 19
Tackle busts 19 vs 12
Attacking kicks 9 vs 6
Carries 169 vs 151
Avg Carry Gain 6.75 vs 7.36
Clean breaks 3 vs 3
Runs from Dummy Half 19 vs 15
Errors 6 vs 8
Goals 6 vs 6
Missed goals 1 vs 1
Offloads 10 vs 5
Penalties 8 vs 9
The battle of who could score more, it was clear defence wasn’t the order of the day here with a total of 76 points scored and with a 4-point gap between the two teams. Catalans scored the most tries this round with 7 showing an attacking ability exists. Catalans had a slightly easier time of it only tackling 282 times compared to 335 from Leigh, missing less tackles and making more busts through defence, and even less errors.
It starts to build up a comprehensive victory for Catalans, if Catalans improve under new management they could sneak into to the top 8 but it’s a big ask with 3 to go until the split.
Salford Red Devils vs Huddersfield Giants
Tries 7 vs 4
Assists 6 vs 4
Tackles 298 vs 354
Marker tackles 42 vs 55
Missed tackles 22 vs 36
Tackle busts 36 vs 22
Attacking kicks 13 vs 9
Carries 178 vs 151
Metres 1241 vs 973
Av Carry Gain 6.97 vs 6.44
Clean breaks 10 vs 5
Runs from Dummy Half 14 vs 3
Errors 5 vs 10
40 20s 2 vs 1
Goals 4 vs 2
Missed 4 vs 2
Offloads 8 vs 7
Penalties 5 vs 5
Both teams struggled to make serious metres in this game with the avg carry gain for both teams being below 7m per carry. The Giants made more errors and looked to be less adventurous, I say that because the attacking kicks are lower, the runs from dummy half are WAY down ‘3’ in the whole game is hard to believe but that’s what the computer is saying – and I’ve put plenty of coal in it as well.
Salford were too powerful in the end as the tries, tackle busts, and attacking kicks show the gap between winning a match and losing it. Salford finish the round in 2nd as Hull fall to 4th following the loss against Castleford.
Wigan Warriors vs Widnes Vikings
Tries 5 vs 2
Assists 5 vs 1
Tackles 296 vs 364
Marker Tackles 35 vs 44
Missed tackles 8 vs 18
Tackle busts 18 vs 8
Attacking Kicks 10 vs 8
Carries 187 vs 159
Av Gain 6.68 vs 5.60
Clean breaks 6 vs 3
Run from Dummy Half 19 vs 17
Errors 9 vs 12
Goals 4 vs 2
Offloads 10 vs 8
Penalties 9 vs 10
Grab Dennis Betts a throat sweet it’s another loss for Widnes, when up against an off-form Wigan their class and pedigree show through, sadly for Widnes it was at their expense. Other items of note here, the avg gain for both sides was quite low 5.60 is rock bottom but even Wigan’s 6.68 is some way off their season average of 7.11. I suspect that sort of thing would be a worry in that a Wigan side is struggling to make their way down the park.
What does it all mean?
As the regular season gets into the final 4 games we can see a few things happening, fatigue is starting to play a factor already, after 20 rounds some teams are feeling it and are not as powerful as they once were. That can be because of Injury or just lack of round by round fitness.
For round 21-23 the test will be the teams who can manage those issues of injuries and fatigue and play through them, some teams are doing that by finding new ways to win, table toppers Castleford are a prime example of that. Other teams are just getting players back from long-term injury and they are finding their feet and form.
Next round we have Leigh vs Warrington, Catalans vs Wigan among the tasty fixtures in terms of the league but each match has its own merits. Do let me know the comments, Facebook and twitter if this format ‘does it for you’, until next time.
